Unreal growth

Weekly newsletter tracking high-level policy signals sent by China’s top leaders. For more information, visit About Five Things.

For week 3-9 March 2024

Commentary

It would seem certain that one of the things on China’s leaders’ mind at the moment is economic growth. Having seen China record 5.2% annual expansion of the economy in 2023, according to its official statistics, they set expansion of around 5% as their target for 2024.

Commentary on this target has centred on whether it is achievable and if so what would be needed to meet it. No one seems to think it could happen organically.

Yet it could be that this figure of 5% was arrived at for last year and chosen for this year for quite another reason – that maintaining such a rate would allow China to double its current GDP in 15 years, and so allow for the doubling of GDP between 2020 and 2035 that Xi Jinping had described as “completely possible” in 2020.

In short, this isn’t an economic target, it’s a political one. And as a political one, it’s an order. The question is – how strong an order is it?

Li Qiang’s government work report spells out where China’s leaders’ priorities lie. The top three “Major Tasks for 2024” are:

1. Striving to modernize the industrial system and developing new quality productive forces at a faster pace

2. Invigorating China through science and education and consolidating the foundations for high-quality development

3. Expanding domestic demand and promoting sound economic flows

China’s leaders want people to focus more on building for the future than seeing growth now. They are aware of the problems in China’s property sector and with its local government finances. But they want these managed rather than solved so that resources can be directed to the areas that they believe will be of most importance in the long run – the nation’s productive forces.

Last year, the growth figure was probably fudged; this year it may be too. But does that matter? Not for them.

Top-ranked articles for 3-9 March 2024
% = percentage of publications monitored carrying the article

1. Li Qiang's government work report (excerpt)
李强作的政府工作报告（摘登）
Xinhua News Agency, 5 March 2024
Chinese / Official translation / 50%

2. Second Session of 14th National People’s Congress opens in Beijing
十四届全国人大二次会议在京开幕
Xinhua News Agency, 5 March 2024
Chinese / Machine translation / 40%

3. Xi Jinping emphasizes development of new productive forces in accordance with local conditions during deliberations of Jiangsu delegation
习近平在参加江苏代表团审议时强调 因地制宜发展新质生产力
Xinhua News Agency, 5 March 2024
Chinese / Machine translation / 35%

4. Second Plenary Session of Second Session of 14th National People’s Congress is held
十四届全国人大二次会议举行第二次全体会议Xinhua News Agency, 8 March 2024
Chinese / Machine translation / 32%

5. 14th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference opens in Beijing
全国政协十四届二次会议在京开幕Xinhua News Agency, 4 March 2024
Chinese / Machine translation / 31%

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