The Masterplan

28 January-3 February 2024

Weekly newsletter tracking high-level policy signals sent by China’s top leaders. For more information, visit About Five Things.

Commentary

Observers of China wondering where about whether the country’s leaders are thinking about a big economic stimulus should read the most widely circulated article in China’s official media last week, a report on a CPC Central Committee Politburo study session devoted to high-quality development (original/machine translation).

It notes that during the session Xi Jinping made a speech in which he pointed out:

since the [start of the] New Era, the Party Central Committee had made a series of major decisions and arrangements and that promoting high-quality development had become the consensus and conscious action of the entire Party and society and become the main theme of economic and social development.

This is an unequivocal statement about China’s development priority, backed up by further points throughout the piece.

These included that the knowledge for new productive forces was already in place:

Xi Jinping emphasized that high-quality development required the guidance of new productivity theory, and new productivity had been formed in practice and had demonstrated strong driving force and support for high-quality development.

That new industries had been or were being formed:

Xi Jinping pointed out that scientific and technological innovation could give birth to new industries, new models, and new driving forces, and was the core element for developing new productive forces.

That the techniques and knowledge being developed could overhaul existing industries:

Xi Jinping emphasized that it was necessary to promptly apply the results of scientific and technological innovation to specific industries and industrial chains, to transform and upgrade traditional industries, to cultivate and strengthen emerging industries, to layout and to build future industries, and to improve the modern industrial system.

And that green development was an accompanying priority:

Xi Jinping pointed out that green development was the foundation of high-quality development and that new productive forces were themselves green productive forces. We must accelerate the green transformation of the development model and help reach carbon peak and carbon neutrality.

And for all the above, what has to change is how the economy works:

Xi Jinping emphasized that production relations must adapt to the requirements of productivity development. To develop new productive forces, we must further comprehensively deepen reforms and form new production relations that were compatible with them.

In short, China’s leaders have no intention of deviating from their chosen path of centring the next stage of China’s development around technology.

The merits of this approach could be debated – it goes against recommendations made by the World Bank, IMF and many Chinese thinks tanks, among others. But in Xi’s China, it seems that time has gone.

Top-ranked articles for 28 January-3 February 2024
% = percentage of publications monitored carrying the article

1. Accelerate the development of new productive forces and solidly promote high-quality development
加快发展新质生产力 扎实推进高质量发展
Xinhua News Agency, 1 February 2024
Chinese / Machine translation / 43%

2. Leading the helm to plan the overall situation, guiding thoughts towards rejuvenation
领航掌舵谋全局 思想引领向复兴
Xinhua News Agency, 1 February 2024
Chinese / Machine translation / 39%

3. [Video] Xi Jinping visits and extends greetings to grassroots cadres and the masses in Tianjin
[视频]习近平春节前夕赴天津看望慰问基层干部群众
CCTV, 2 February 2024
Chinese / Official translation / 39%

4. Creating a strong sense of community for the Chinese nation, promoting high-quality development of the Party’s national work in the New Era
铸牢中华民族共同体意识 推进新时代党的民族工作高质量发展
Xinhua News Agency, 31 January 2024
Chinese / Machine translation / 37%

5. CPC Central Committee Politburo meets
中共中央政治局召开会议
Xinhua News Agency, 31 January 2024
Chinese / Machine translation / 35%

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