8-14 October 2023

Fortnightly newsletter tracking high-level policy signals sent by China’s top leaders. For more information, visit About Five Things.

Commentary

The second most widely circulated article in China’s official media last week reported various comments by Xi Jinping on the Yangtze River Economic Belt, a stretch of Chinese territory, extending from Shanghai in the east across a total of 11 provincial level entities ending in Yunnan in the west.

Crucial to the development of this enormous region is of course the continuing development of the Yangtze River Delta, and especially the heartland province of Jiangsu.

Even more so than Shanghai, Jiangsu stands at the centre of the Chinese economy, accounting for just over 10% of GDP – a share rivalled only by Guangdong.

Citizens in both areas have done well in recent decades. Jiangsu’s per capita GDP at the end of 2022 was just over US$21,000, the third highest in the country, behind only Shanghai and Beijing. Guangdong’s figure was lower at U$14,860 – the seventh largest in the country, and comfortably ahead of the national average of US$12,670.

What, however, could shape their future prospects are their very different demographic trajectoryies. Since 2000, Jiangsu’s population has grown from 74 million to 85 million, an increase of just under 15%. Guangdong, in contrast, has gone from 86 million to 127 million – an increase approaching 50%.

Driving Guangdong’s population surge has been migration of youngish people from other parts of the country, mainly poorer inland regions. As a result, Guangdong’s over-60s account for just 13% of its total population, a lower share than anywhere else in China apart from Xinjiang and Tibet. Its 0-14-year-old contingent is also large at 20%.

Jiangsu’s over 60s in contrast account for 23% of its population, and its 0-14-year-olds for 14%.

The other two key Yangtze River Delta regions are not so different. Shanghai’s over 60s also account for 23% of its population; its under-15s for just 10%; Zhejiang’s numbers are 20% and 14%.

Demographics, of course, aren’t destiny. Through the coming years, however, as China grapples with both slowing growth and an ageing population, its south looks better positioned to cope in both respects.

Top-ranked articles for 8-14 October 2023
% = percentage of publications monitored carrying the article

1. Xi Jinping issues important instructions on publicizing ideological and cultural work
习近平对宣传思想文化工作作出重要指示
Xinhua News Agency, 8 October 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 48%

2. Xi Jinping presides over symposium on further promoting high-quality development of Yangtze River Economic Belt
习近平主持召开进一步推动长江经济带高质量发展座谈会强调
Xinhua News Agency, 12 October 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 45%

3. During inspection visit to Jiangxi, Xi Jinping emphasizes need to emancipate the mind, forge ahead, use strengths to offset weaknesses, consolidate roots and create new ones, and strive to write chapter of Chinese-style modernization in the province
习近平在江西考察时强调 解放思想开拓进取扬长补短固本兴新 奋力谱写中国式现代化江西篇章
Xinhua News Agency, 13 October 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 44%

4. 18th National Congress of Trade Unions of China opens in Beijing
中国工会第十八次全国代表大会在京开幕
Xinhua News Agency, 9 October 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 40%

5. Xi Jinping meets US Senate Majority Leader Schumer and his delegation
习近平会见美国国会参议院多数党领袖舒默一行
Xinhua News Agency, 9 October 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 39%

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