23 April-6 May

Fortnightly newsletter tracking high-level policy signals sent by China’s top leaders. For more information, visit About Five Things.

Commentary

The most widely circulated article in China’s official media over the last fortnight was a report on a meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, the Communist Party’s highest economic committee (Chinese, machine translation).

The report’s headline, 为支撑的现代化产业体系, 以人口高质量发展支撑中国式现代化, captured well what look set to be among the leading preoccupations of China’s leaders for foreseeable future:

– Construct a modern industrial system supported by the real economy.

– Support Chinese-style modernization with high-quality population development

Although it is not clear exactly what is meant by a “modern industrial system supported by the real economy”, there seem to be two things it is not, namely an economy in which neither digital services such as social media nor finance play an overly important role. There may also be a preference for services in general to be played down in favour of manufacturing:

The modern industrial system is the material and technological foundation of a modern country, and the focus of economic development must be placed on the real economy to provide strong material support for the realization of the second centenary goal.

The one digital industry specifically named as a target for support in the article – artificial intelligence – is regarded in China as a tool that can be used to further automation and other manufacturing processes rather than as a source of text and images, or in other words further the development of the “real” economy.

The scale of the demographic challenge facing China is now at the forefront of China’s leaders’ minds:

The meeting pointed out that our country’s current population development is characterized by declining birthrate, aging population, and regional population growth and differentiation. It is necessary to fully understand and correctly view the new situation of our country's population development. Focusing on the strategic arrangements for building a strong country and national rejuvenation, we must improve the population development strategy in the new era, understand, adapt to, and lead the new normal of population development, focus on improving the overall quality of the population, strive to maintain an appropriate fertility level and population size, and accelerate the creation of high-quality, high-quality population.

What this might lead to in terms of policies was not specified, but trying to reconcile the leadership’s other priorities with the reality of an ageing, shrinking population already looks set to be one of the big issues of the Xi’s third five-year spell as party secretary.

The economy was also the principal subject of a report of a late April Central Committee Politburo meeting (Chinese, machine translation). The third paragraph described how China’s leaders view things:

the current improvement of our country’s economic operation is mainly restorative, the internal driving force is not strong, the demand is still insufficient, the economic transformation and upgrading are facing new resistance, and the promotion of high-quality development still needs to overcome many difficulties and challenges.

China’s leaders have bought into the idea that encouraging private consumption will be key to China’s continued economic growth:

The meeting emphasized that the recovery and expansion of demand is the key to the continuous recovery of the current economy. A proactive fiscal policy must be strengthened to improve efficiency, and a prudent monetary policy must be precise and powerful to form a joint force to expand demand. It is necessary to increase the income of urban and rural residents through multiple channels, improve the consumption environment, and promote the consumption of services

The rest of the report outlines the various areas which will need attending to – supporting private enterprises as well as state ones, resolving corporate debt issues, ensuring the “healthy” development of “platform” (ie, internet) companies, continuing to attract foreign investment, having a stable real estate market, find jobs for recent graduates, etc.

Through the coming months – and probably beyond – we will be watching how China’s leaders reconcile the realities of slowing economic growth and its corresponding need to shift resources to private consumption with the demands for continued supply-side investment in manufacturing and related industries required of Xi’s modernization vision.

Top-ranked articles for 9-22 April 2023
% = percentage of publications carrying the article

1. Accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system supported by the real economy and support Chinese-style modernization with high-quality population development
加快建设以实体经济为支撑的现代化产业体系以人口高质量发展支撑中国式现代化
Xinhua News Agency, 5 May 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 45%

2. Xi Jinping extends festive congratulations and best wishes to working people across the country
习近平向全国广大劳动群众 致以节日的祝贺和诚挚的慰问
Xinhua News Agency, 30 April 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 42%

3. Xi Jinping has phone call with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky
习近平同乌克兰总统泽连斯基通电话
Xinhua News Agency, 26 April 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 40%

4. Good young people in the new era in the heart of the general secretary
总书记心中的新时代好青年
Xinhua News Agency, 3 May 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 40%

5. Xi Jinping on China’s cooperation with WIPO: Congratulatory letter to mark 50th anniversary and publicity week home event
习近平向中国与世界知识产权组织合作 五十周年纪念暨宣传周主场活动致贺信
Xinhua News Agency, 26 April 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 38%

6. Xi Jinping meets CPV Central Committee Politburo, Executive Secretary of the Secretariat of the CPV Central Committee and Head of the Organization Department of the CPV Central Committee Truong Thi Mai
习近平会见越共中央政治局委员、中央书记处常务书记、中组部部长张氏梅
Xinhua News Agency, 26 April 2023
Chinese/ Machine translation / 38%

7. Xi Jinping sends congratulatory letter to Asian Cultural Heritage Conservation Alliance conference
习近平向亚洲文化遗产保护联盟大会致贺信
Xinhua News Agency, 25 April 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 38%

8. CPC Central Committee Politburo holds meeting
分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作
Xinhua News Agency, 28 April 2023
Chinese/ Machine translation/ 38%

9. Speech at Education Work Conference on the theme of learning and implementing Xi Jinping’s thought on socialism with Chinese characteristics for the New Era
在学习贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想主题教育工作会议上的讲话
Xinhua News Agency, 30 April 2023
Chinese/ Machine translation / 37%

10. Thick planting of love for agriculture cultivates the ability to develop agriculture, Make contributions on the big stage of rural revitalization
厚植爱农情怀练就兴农本领 在乡村振兴的大舞台上建功立业
Xinhua News Agency, 3 May 2023
Chinese/ Machine translation / 29%

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