26 November-2 December 2023

Weekly newsletter tracking high-level policy signals sent by China’s top leaders. For more information, visit About Five Things.

Commentary

Accompanying Xi Jinping’s inspection visit to Shanghai of 28 November-2 December, three of the five most widely circulated articles in China’s official media last week were about regional economies along the Yangtze River – two on the Yangtze River Delta area at its lower reaches and one on Yangtze River Economic Belt that runs its length to Yunnan.

With the Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong being the two key regions carrying the Chinese economy forward in the coming years, officials in both places must be asking how they should be planning their next steps – what direction their policies should be taking for the next few years.

Usually, at this stage in China’s five-year political cycle between one Communist Party congress at the next, they should have received guidance from a Party plenary session that would have unveiled the broad direction they wanted the Chinese economy to take.

However, that session – widely expected to have been held in October or November, has yet to occur, and nor has there been any indication about when it might happen.

Perhaps the most likely reason the delay would be that the last year has seen Xi Jinping replace all of China’s top economic leadership team.

This process was only completed in November when He Lifeng, a 68-year-old official with ties to Xi Jinping since the 1990s, was confirmed as director of the office of the Central Financial Commission, a Party body set up in March to give China’s leaders closer control over China’s financial sector, and Party chief of the Central Financial Work Commission, the Party body that oversees political and ideological work in the financial sector.

That He and other officials might want more time to figure things out would not be surprising, especially given the problems China’s economy is encountering and can expect to face in the coming years.

However, some clues of what eventually emerge when the plenum is eventually heard can be found in these the Yangtze River pieces.

First, was the repeated use of the word “integrated”. We already know that under Xi China’s leaders want more control; integrated tells us a little more about the nature of the control they want, with more working together policies and actions.

One target here appears to be the “wasteful” development that characterizes much provincial-level economic policymaking, with localities competing with each other to promote industries and attract investment.

Another is likely the leadership’s belief that for China to meet its ambitious technological advancement goals, more central coordination will be needed, not less.

Second, is that ecology gets big mentions. The threats posed by climate change have been interiorized; addressing them may not be the priority, but they certainly are a priority.

And third, were the repeated requirements to uphold and strengthen Party leadership. Perhaps this should go without saying, but nonetheless under Xi it should always be remembered that ideology and the limits it imposes on what can be thought about must always be borne in mind; what China’s leaders say cannot be challenged.

Additionally, there seems to be an acceptance that China’s growth is slowing and will continue to slow. Given this, then the issue for China’s leaders is not what action they should to reverse things but how best to manage them.

And perhaps the implications of this are another reason for the delay of the Third Plenum. If China’s structural growth rate is around 3% a year, then many things before believed possible, such as doubling GPD between 2022 and 2035, will no longer be achievable. And many cracks that have been papered over up to now – misallocations of capital, for example – will become visible and widen.

Managing expectations may prove difficult, as could running the economy. The Yangtze River Delta region, along with Guangdong, will have to do a lot of heavy lifting.

Top-ranked articles for 26 November-2 December 2023 2023
% = percentage of publications monitored carrying the article

1. Achieve new significant breakthroughs in promoting the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta region so better playing a leading and exemplary role in China's modernization
推动长三角一体化发展取得新的重大突破 在中国式现代化中更好发挥引领示范作用Xinhua News Agency, 30 November 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 36%

2. Review of the “Opinions on Several Policies and Measures to Further Promote the High-Quality Development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt” and the “Regulations on the Foreign Affairs Work of the Communist Party of China”
审议《关于进一步推动长江经济带高质量发展若干政策措施的意见》《中国共产党领导外事工作条例》Xinhua News Agency, 27 November 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 33%

3. Strengthening the establishment of foreign-related legal system development and creating favorable conditions in the external environment
加强涉外法制建 设营造有利法治条件和外部环境Xinhua News Agency, 28 November 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 32%

4. General Secretary Xi Jinping’s efforts to promote the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta
习近平总书记谋划推动长三角一体化发展纪事Xinhua News Agency, 1 December 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 28%

5. Xi Jinping's feelings towards the Yellow River
习近平的黄河情怀Xinhua News Agency, 26 November 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 27%

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