26 March-8 April 2023

Fortnightly newsletter tracking high-level policy signals sent by China’s top leaders. For more information, visit About Five Things.

Commentary

The most widely circulated article in China’s official media in the last fortnight, “CPC Central Committee Politburo meets” (original/machine translation), had one message: act in line with the supervision of the CPC.

We never want to read too much into such articles, yet this one – and the week’s third most widely circulated piece, “Do a good job in themed education and gather strength for the new journey” (original/machine translation) – follows the dominant template of CPC announcements since last November’s National Party Congress, of emphasising the need for discipline, not the purpose of such discipline.

This is very much in line with our take of China’s leaders lacking a guiding framework for top-level policy-making. Or, to put things another way, as we saw at the NPC meeting, the Party has displaced the government in various key areas to take stronger control of the policy-making apparatus but has yet to start developing policy.

One might hazard a guess that a reason for is that Xi Jinping’s new leadership team is still figuring out where its attention should best be directed. One excuse for this would be that the institutional changes announced at the National People’s Congress have yet to be implemented, with the various new bodies now being formed only likely to be up and running by the end of this year.

But also plausible is that while China’s leaders have both an immediate priority – reigniting economic growth – and a long-term goal – “rejuvenating the Chinese nation” – how to fill the space in between remains unsettled.

For sure, technology will play a major role; as will finance, hence the new central commissions for finance and science and technology. But whereas policy in those areas was made by government officials, having claimed this area for the party, Xi and his colleagues also added responsibilities in unknown areas that will require substantial new capabilities.

Indirect evidence for such a view comes from some of the more pugnacious economic arguments surfacing in the last few months on what policy should or should not be (most recently, this article released on Sina by economist Ren Zeping calling for stepped up internationalization of the renminbi). Calls like this tend to be made when policy direction has yet to be settled.

Alternatively, it might be the case that more of Xi’s time is currently being taken up with foreign relations, an area where previously he left the heavy lifting to figures on the government side. In the wake of his visit to Moscow, the last fortnight has seen visits to China by France’s President Emmanuel Macron and the EU Commission’s President Ursula von der Leyen, a call with Saudi Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman following China’s helping Saudia Arabia and Iran reestablish diplomatic ties, and this week the visit of Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

We can’t see the point of parsing the articles about these visits and call too closely. Instead, a far bigger point should be clear: Xi is heavily engaging with major countries around the world. He is making China a player in all that is going on in ways far beyond any of his predecessors of the last four decades. Moreover, while his previous involvements were primarily economic, delivered via the Belt and Road initiative or trade and investment agreements, now his commitments are primarily political – about asserting China’s role as a power broker.

He wouldn’t be the first leader to find the global stage more compelling than managing the overly familiar, often messier entanglements of domestic politics.

Top-ranked articles for 26 March-8 April 2023

% = percentage of publications carrying the article

1. CPC Central Committee Politburo meets
中共中央政治局召开会议
Xinhua News Agency, 30 March 2023
Chinese/ Machine translation / 54%

2. First and second volumes of “Selected Readings of Xi Jinping’s Works” published nationwide
《习近平著作选读》第一卷、第二卷在全国出版发行
Xinhua News Agency, 3 April 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 54%

3. Do a good job in themed education and gather strength for the new journey
扎实抓好主题教育为奋进新征程凝心聚力
Xinhua News Agency, 3 April 2023
Chinese/ Machine translation / 49%

4. Xi Jinping meets European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
习近平会见欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩
Xinhua News Agency, 6 April 2023
Chinese/ Machine translation / 48%

5. Set off an upsurge in afforestation and greening to paint an updated picture of a beautiful China
掀起造林绿化热潮 绘出美丽中国的更新画卷
Xinhua News Agency, 4 April 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 48%

6. Xi Jinping holds talks with France’s President Emmanuel Macron
习近平同法国总统马克龙举行会谈
Xinhua News Agency, 6 April 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 46%

7. “Excerpts of Xi Jinping’s Discussion on National Food Security” published
《习近平关于国家粮食安全论述摘编》出版发行
Xinhua News Agency, 27 March 2023
Chinese/ Machine translation / 43%

8. Xi Jinping speaks by telephone with Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman
习近平同沙特王储兼首相穆罕默德通电话
Xinhua News Agency, 28 March 2023
Chinese/ Machine translation / 40%

9. Continue to deepen the study and implementation of socialist ideology with Chinese characteristics in the new era
把学习贯彻新时代中国特色社会主义思想不断引向深入
Xinhua News Agency, 31 March 2023
Chinese/ Machine translation / 38%

10. Speech at CPC Party School’s 90th anniversary celebration ceremony and 2023 spring semester opening ceremony
在中央党校建校90周年庆祝大会暨2023年春季学期开学典礼上的讲话
Xinhua News Agency, 31 March 2023
Chinese/ Machine translation / 35%

For more information about Five Things on China’s Leader’s Minds, visit About Five Things on China’s Leaders’ Minds or email fivethings@bilby.ai.