18 June-1 July 2023

Fortnightly newsletter tracking high-level policy signals sent by China’s top leaders. For more information, visit About Five Things.

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Commentary

Two themes stood out in the articles most widely circulated in China’s official media during the last fortnight: youth, and Party organization.

One way of viewing this – and various other recent actions by Communist Party’s leadership – is attempts at derisking. Another way is as an attempted recalibration of how the Party exercises leadership, swinging from using market and policy mechanisms to using things that it controls more tightly. Or maybe it could be both.

Young people must be a matter of concern to China’s leaders. Some protested at China’s Covid policies in late 2022. Now, more than 20% of recent graduates are unemployed. As those graduating this summer arrive on the labour market, that figure would seem likely to rise. The zeitgeist is not assuaging those concerns. No matter how much China’s leaders complain that wanting to “lie flat” is being unpatriotic, the memes still flow.

As for the Party, the continued rise in membership numbers – recently announced to have reached 98 million people in 2022, up 1.3 million on the year before – points to continued efforts to ensure its tentacles reach into every corner of Chinese society.

Tighter oversight is necessary due to the greater complexity of the circumstances in which China finds itself. As is noted in “Provide a strong organizational guarantee for the construction of a strong country and national rejuvenation” (Chinese, machine translation):

At present, our country’s development is facing new strategic opportunities, new strategic tasks, new strategic stages, new strategic requirements, and a new strategic environment. The risks and challenges that need to be addressed and the contradictions and problems that need to be resolved are more complicated than ever.

However, with the world facing “changes unseen in a hundred years”, as Xi Jinping has pointed out on many occasions recently, worrying that things might go wrong counts for a lot more than hoping for the best.

This is playing out in various ways.

The “dual circulation” economic policy, with its twin emphases on playing up domestic consumption while at the same time reducing global technology reliances, is of course about derisking.

Officials are also reacting more rapidly than might be expected to bad news – as happened following the deaths of 31 people at a barbecue restaurant, an event that followed just a fortnight after hundreds of people died in another gas disaster. Official coverage highlighted the provincial leadership’s mobilization, the almost instantaneous payments of compensation, the issuance of public apologies and new measures for gas safety. This accelerated responsiveness was further underlined when within three days, Xi added his own “important instructions” on followup measures.

Pan Gongsheng’s appointment as Party secretary at the People’s Bank of China, a preliminary step for him becoming the central bank’s governor, also seems to be about finding the safest pair of hands available. Though he is often taken to lean towards reformism, in good part due to time spent overseas as a researcher at Cambridge and Harvard universities, is track record leans towards control. Policies he has been identified with include introducing fintech rules, barring cryptocurrencies and the “three red lines” introduced in 2020 to cap property developers’ debt-to-cash, debt-to-assets and debt-to-equity ratios – all very much in line with the Party’s stepping up of oversight of the financial sector.

As for Sino-US ties, the best that seems to be hoped for is preventing matters spiralling out of control. That means talks aimed at having further talks. And with Europe, engagement aimed at engagement.

Perhaps this caution can also be seen in another aspect of Party membership figures. While the overall total has grown, the number of those aged under 30 fell 1.5% to 12.4 million.

Western governments may be wondering what derisking their ties to China might mean; China’s leaders have already decided what is involved and are putting in place measures that will – in their eyes – leave them less exposed to systemic risks.

Top-ranked articles for 18 June-1 July 2023
% = percentage of publications carrying the article

1. Earnestly shoulder the mission and tasks entrusted by the Party in the new era and new journey, Fully inspire the majority of young people to take responsibility in the Chinese-style modernization drive
充分激发广大青年在中国式现代化建设中挺膺担当
Xinhua News Agency, 26 June 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 48%

2. Xi Jinping meets with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken
习近平会见美国国务卿布林肯
Xinhua News Agency, 19 June 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 46%

3. Communist Youth League’s 19th National Congress opens in Beijing
中国共产主义青年团第十九次全国代表大会在京开幕
Xinhua News Agency, 19 June 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 43%

4. Deeply comprehend the important thoughts of the Party Central Committee on Party building, Continuously improve the quality of organizational work
深刻领会党中央关于党的建设的重要思想 不断提高组织工作质量
Xinhua News Agency, 29 June 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 38%

5. “Opinions on Several Policies and Measures to Support the Construction of Xiong’an New Area with High Standards and High Quality” reviewed
审议《关于支持高标准高质量建设雄安新区若干政策措施的意见》
Xinhua News Agency, 30 June 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 37%

6. Important instructions have been issued requiring all efforts to treat the injured, strengthen safety supervision in key industries and areas, and ensure the safety of people’s lives and property
习近平对银川燃气爆炸事故作重要指示
Xinhua News Agency, 22 June 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 37%

7. Strive to grow into a pillar of talent who is loyal and reliable to the Party and the people and worthy of the heavy responsibility of the times
努力成长为对党和人民忠诚可靠、堪当时代重任的栋梁之才
Xinhua News Agency, 30 June 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 35%

8. Provide a strong organizational guarantee for the construction of a strong country and national rejuvenation
为强国建设、民族复兴提供坚强组织保证
Xinhua News Agency, 27 June 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 35%

9. Youth, sparkling on the journey of revival
青春，在复兴征程上闪闪发光
Xinhua News Agency, 18 June 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 34%

10. Xi Jinping sends reply letter to Eric Domb, a famous Belgian friend
习近平复信比利时知名友好人士董博
Xinhua News Agency, 20 June 2023
Chinese / Machine translation / 34%

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